Scottish independence! Yay or Nay?

Haven’t blogged in a while, mostly due to military engagements but I’m out now and in Scotland. So a topologically relevant topic seems appropriate, on September 18th Scotland will have a vote about whether or not to leave the UK: should they?

Who should be able to vote for such a thing? I think in philosophy the solution to the boundary problem (who can vote) is called “all-affected-interests-principle”. So it’s odd that I can vote even though this probably doesn’t affect me and UK citizens can’t even though they are to be affected in a number of ways, including Security Council status in the UN, military strength, and the economy.

Weird legal issues: 

Not in UK means not in EU which comes with not being an EU citizen. However it is likely that Scottish people will just remain UK citizens and also gain the Scottish citizenship, while not all UK citizens will get Scottish Citizenship, so Scots would get the rights of all UK citizens (including voting) and their own but UK citizens would now not have such easy access to Scotland, doesn’t sound too fair to me.

Now, Scotland would probably be allowed into the EU but “probably” is not certainly and there could be a significant lag time between independence and entering the EU, in the meantime Scotland might not have member state rights, including free trade. I don’t think I’ve read anything on what can possibly happen to their exports in such a scenario.

So when should an area try to be independent?

The US declaration of Independence puts it well: “Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes”. It’s reasonable to want independence if you are slaves of some sort, secondary citizens or governmental abuse. There doesn’t seem to be any freedom that a Scotsman doesn’t have, if they really want to I’m sure the UK would not mind the website suffix “.scot”.

Even weirder finance issues: 

As usual politicians throw around random figures, specifically some undeniably inaccurate statements about future projections of income for Scots conditional on independence.

So if Scotland becomes independent, what happens to its debt? Does the UK pass some its debt on to it? If so how much? Apparently if it pays its population share (aka total UK debt*proportion of UK citizens which are Scottish) then the only way to increase the wealth of Scotland is to get at least as much revenue from the optimistic projections(joke) of North sea Oil.

Economics: 

Finally to the good stuff, fairly obvious, asymmetric SHOCKS! Monetary policy is pretty good at dealing with shocks to the economy which are symmetric but not so good at dealing with asymmetric shocks, so the wider your government the more it can have fiscal stabilizers to dampen a crisis. Aka if a crisis hits Scotland only and not the rest of the UK, the UK government will be able to reallocate funds to dampen the Scottish shock and vice versa, setting independence achieves almost nothing but surely limits options.

There is also question of what currency Scotland will be using as the BOE won’t have them be using the pound. If this is done quickly and efficiently, which I deem as unlikely then currency might not be a problem but if Scotland temporarily has its own currency and does not set about the right expectations about joining the Euro or at least pegging, then there is room here for immense volatility which would also be catastrophic for trade.

The truth:

As always the problem comes down to politicians, since they have the most to gain by separations. Alex Salmond claims that Scots will win a thousand pounds over the next 15 years if they vote yes, and the UK government has a counter-bribe of 1400 per person over the next 20 years. This is what democracy comes to, bribing the public with(in all likelihood) borrowed funds.

Overall:

Accepting such a thing sets a precedent and others would want to join, including Catalona, Veneto, Basque country, Padania, Brittany, Corcisa and Transyvania.

Why should Edinburgh not be independent from the rest of Scotland, why should households not be independent from the rest of the world? Through capitalism

Data is scarce on this issue, so it should be natural to be risk averse and vote no. I would however think it worthwhile if independence implied a return to Scottish Banking! I am unsure as to if it could work when such a system is competing with neighbouring central banks but it’s worth a try.

 

 

Tips on setting up Ipython on windows

Just a quick update, I’ve recently hit a bump while trying to start this online course on quantitative economics and they have a good guide on getting started. I read that other people have issues setting up Anaconda(a package with Ipython) too. Anyways here’s quick guide on what I did to overcome my bumps on setting it up with powershell. I’ve found the issue that Anaconda configures windows paths to a folder named Python27 which for me was in C.

I would recommend making sure your execution policy is set right, this guide here on how to do that.

Then type in this command into powershell:

$a = $env:path; $a.Split(";")

When this is done you will get a list of paths from where powershell reads. You then have to make sure that one of those is anaconda, and in my case I had to rename it to python 27 because that’s where it reading from. You could also just change it in the system setting(there’s a link on that in the quantitative economics link above).

Also if you are completely new to using CMD type things, its probably useful to go thru some basic commands.

Consequences of inflation phobia

updated: added the summation of the factors for a -1.5 deflation rate.

I’m sure most people have heard that increasing how much money is going around generally increases prices (and the opposite holds true). Economists have a formal method for explaining this phenomenon:

M * V = P * Y

The model’s variables are aggregates representing different aspects of the economy. M is how much money there is (though unclear as to what money is). V is Velocity which is s how quickly money is circulating, this variable can tell you quite a bit about the economy and confidence. P is the price level of the economy (Consumer price index is a proxy for consumer), and Y is the total output (Gross Domestic Product is a proxy).

You generally have to get it logged so you can work in growth rates which help tell you better where the economy is heading. So that gives:

m + v = p + y

To clarify, that means that if GDP grows by 10% then y would be 10%. Rearranging for the price level gives us:

m + v – y = p

Now it’s just a question of plugging the right numbers in to predict what inflation will be. Money velocity is expected to be dropping by about 2.5% because of broken financial institutions and lack of confidence in the economy. GDP growth rate in the Eurozone is up for debate but for the sake of argument let’s say its 2%. The ECB is unwilling to be expansionary (thanks to Germany’s hyperinflation phobia) so money growth seems to be about 3%.

3 – 2.5 – 2 = -1.5

So why is this bad? Because when people expect deflation, they end up waiting more (since they expect their money to buy more in the future). This means that economic activity decreases even further and sends the economy further down a depressionary spiral. This includes not only consumers but investors, since consumers won’t be spending, investors won’t find fruitful projects. This comes back in the form of less stuff and less employment. This is not to say that the marginal effect of a deflation movement from 1 to 0 is worse than one from 0 to -1, but generally speaking, the more deflation, the worse things will be. 

Money velocity and GDP can be affected by fiscal stimulus that is, government spending more money. You can also affect velocity by increasing confidence in the markets which makes people not hoard cash as much. But both of these seem unrealistic in the Eurozone with its lack of political union where everyone seems to be obsessed with austerity. An easier solution would be for the ECB to say we are going to increase how much money there is in the economy by 10%, since money is something they directly control this is very easy to do, just print more money, but that won’t even be necessary, as long as they say it out loud, investors and consumers will all know to expect inflation and will invest or spend in the economy.

A note: the expansionary monetary policy would also allow government debt to become more sustainable which makes the other options easier to do.

Understanding Currency Areas and the Eurocrisis

I’ve been quite perturbed that most analyses of the Eurocrisis is done by politicians and doomsayer journalists to the extent that most of the content out there centers on the least likely events and fails to capture the spirit of the intellectual debate. Nice thing about blogs is that you can make things as complicated as you like, though in this case I will restrict myself and not use formulas or graphs for the sake of clarity.

Some helpful background

Devaluation is used as a mechanism to reduce real wages. The reason devaluation works is that workers fail to notice or respond to the inflation by raising their money wage demands. If wages were all tied to inflation(also known as indexation), as many multinationals do, the process would not work, and if some did and others didn’t, the process would disproportionately affect those without this adjustment. This power of devaluation is much more prominent the more the cost of living is reliant on the outside world and hence more likely to provoke a response from the labour force. From that point of view this makes the case for much larger currency areas since devaluation is possible without provoking a response. Devaluation can occur not only through monetary means but also by decreasing the cost of doing business which includes a decrease in taxation levels;

I would recommend reading my Unit of account post and Unit of Exchange post to fully understand the functions of money because they are directly relevant to this post.

The benefits of monetary union

These are microeconomic in nature and involve helping out small firms remain competitive as well as alleviating consumer burdens.

Transaction cost

The first benefit is a reduced transaction cost. Though fees on large currency transactions are quite small, currency turnover is extremely high, so cumulative costs can be higher than one might imagine. Although it’s easy to say that the transaction cost of a single currency is reduced, it is possible to overestimate the magnitude by which this is so. This mistake might be enabled by ignoring the fact that not all foreign currency loans are simply hedging exchange rate risk, indeed some of these are favourable because the foreign loans have a lower interest rate. Even so the reasons for this lower financing rate could not be related to the exchange rates whatsoever, an example of which is a multinational borrowing in the domestic market because its reputational capital can be leveraged into higher credit ratings. Additionally many of the potential perceived costs of foreign trade are simply rents extracted by financial institutions exploiting their economies of scale. This allocation of resources not only has an opportunity cost in terms of human labour but also causes inequality between industries by funneling money into finance.

As an example let’s consider a bid-ask spread (buying versus selling currency) of 0.05%. To the individual this might seem insignificant, but this is a very deceptive way of analysing the situation. Given that 600 billion in currency transactions take place in London, such a spread would represent 300million in costs per day. Even so, this element is frequently ignored by politicians because the savings might be negligible from the narrow view of an individual country, especially since a great proportion of the trading is done on behalf of foreign principals, this means that although monetary union would be a considerable savings cost, the UK perceives it as a booming export sector. Even so, the savings potential from a UK resident’s perspective of an EMU would be limited to transactions within the Eurozone. Academic estimates with all this taken into account estimate that the cost savings in transaction costs would be about 1% of EU income.

Accounting costs

Foreign flows being converted into a common currency for the consolidated balance sheet inherently introduce greater variability in forecasts of share prices and increases capital market volatility.

When evaluating risks of currency splitting we must be able to partition the arguments for what it does and doesn’t do. Any individual entrepreneur is likely to be less enthusiastic of any prospect if an additional risk of currency fluctuation is introduced. However when dealing with multinational firms this risk is not necessarily as large as it appears since a true multinational would have flows in both currencies and opportunities to finance from institutions in both currencies and so the risk is likely to be overstated if we just look at the variance of the exchange rate. If the company has accurate forecasts of these future cash flows it may even hedge, but this is a return to the previous point that this process funnels money into the financial industry. Perhaps most importantly we may overstate the cost of the currency risk because even if the foreign currency value does depreciate, this will be partially offset by the fact that the foreign production will become more competitive and in the process, increasing prospective cash flows. However these options are not present for smaller companies, which have to rely on financial institutions ability to mimic these advantages and generally are likely to reduce competitive forces within the economy since it offers more than just an economy of scale advantage to bigger firms.

Insulation from monetary disturbances and reduced political pressure

Given multiple currencies, it’s possible that the domestic prices are sticky (don’t adjust fast enough). This stickiness might lead to unnecessary and temporary fluctuations in the real exchange rate due to speculative bubbles.

Finally without the option of protectionist policies from myopic politicians, we reap the benefits from the most agreed upon economic policy of all: free trade.

Costs of monetary union

These are macroeconomic in nature (more about patterns of adjustment to disequilibrium) and would hence be up for rigorous debate. Some schools of thought, like the Austrian school of economics might even dismiss them completely and blame this thinking for the business cycle by enabling the allocating of resources to be done in a manner that does not reflect the preference of consumers, implying an inevitable crisis.

Monetary flexibility

This is perhaps the main cost being referred to. Currency union makes regions less able to respond to macroeconomic imbalances through specific monetary policy. This belief is mostly credible in the monetarist sphere of thought since fiscal stabilization is a very plausible alternative to most interventionists (and perhaps the only choice when interest rates hit the zero bound, ignoring of course the more unorthodox methods being suggested).

Monetary flexibility also includes financing government spending via inflation, by reducing the burden of public debt (e.g. if your currency is worth less, government bonds are worth less and easier to pay back). Though some would question such indirect measures of taxation as not being transparent it is an important option for extreme times such as wars. However EU wide tax and transfer systems reduce the need for this. Similarly seigniorage revenue in a common currency area (the ability of new money to buy goods and services) would need to split in very equitable ways.

Labour mobility is king

These arguments are all rendered irrelevant by one thing, a sufficiently high labour mobility (people willing to move across the currency zone).

To give an example lets imagine the price level dropped in a country by 10% and that foreign goods are responsible for 50% of the cost of living, so real wages have increased by 50*10%=5%(since you can now afford your previous lifestyle with less money). However given that the people can now buy more but their productivity has not changed this will make firms less competitive and apply downward pressure on the economy which will increase unemployment, bankruptcies and so forth. With sufficient labour mobility, employment will be restored without transitional unemployment because people will fleet to the new high wage country until the supply of people brings wages back to equilibrium.

The question as to how the existence of labour mobility comes about is of course a different one. Although Economists usually perceive it as a requirement for an optimal currency area, it is likely that action must first be taken to increase the labour mobility. Indeed since the Euro was introduced an increase of labour mobility has occurred within the Eurozone and the crisis has further fuelled this trend.

However it is obviously still insufficient and more could be done to encourage this trend, reforms to this end would include: a single language being used in business, transferable pensions, lower transportation costs(from country to country), standardized unemployment benefits, common legal systems…etc; This encouragement is not only important for Europe but also for the US where empirical estimates show that about six years are required for labour mobility to substitute the failure of wage levels to fall. From this point of view you could argue that even the US should be a candidate for monetary disintegration. I would also add that policies that encourage home ownership, which are taken by most governments are likely to reduce labour mobility.

Of course there is also the matter that entering a common currency usually leaves countries open to speculative attacks by investors. Though this has already been experienced by the EU in the early 1990s and paying any attention to this now is merely a sunk cost fallacy.

Expectations and Politics

Fixed exchange rates could theoretically offer many of the benefits of union without the costs. Though the assumption here is that the countries can keep this indefinitely, and if it would have been done indefinitely they would have just joined the monetary union. So in practice fixed exchange rates have a problem of credibility, how long will they keep doing this? In some cases the market will use immense capital to attack these fixed exchange rates and break down the regime.

Although this analysis is economic, it is impossible to ignore the effects of political framing on the markets. From the very outset the framing of North versus South has had an enormous influence on the markets and has greatly impeded the ability of governments to take action. When it was presented that the crisis is a result of Greek fraudulence and profligacy, it becomes difficult to aid them from a political point of view. If the crisis was framed in terms of economic interdependence and not of morality aka, helping the lazy Greek (some economists disagree with that stereotype) it is likely that bond spreads within the EU would not be as high as they are now and more credibility could have been given to weaker governments, as it is now stronger governments are able to retain market confidence. The more these benefits are spread out, the more consumers of these advantaged countries will lose out in terms of an increase in cost of living.

The idea that monetary union requires fiscal union has been spouted enough but it doesn’t go far enough. In addition to the measures that would encourage labour mobility, common deposit insurance, financial regulation, true lender of last resort abilities from the ECB and a federal constitution that overrides state power would all go a long way to unifying Europe.

Of course in ordinary times it is true that countries are able to borrow more than they would have otherwise due to the credibility of their neighbours, creating an incentive for governments to be unsustainable. In turn this increased spending creates inflation and boosts real wages (and hence, standard of living) to levels that don’t reflect the competitiveness of the country.

However, in another light all this talk about restricting countries from defaulting and requiring German taxpayers to bail out other sovereigns is nonsense. US states and local governments have defaulted in the past as John H. Cochrane’s puts it: “A currency is simply a unit of value, as meters are units of length. If the Greeks had skimped on the olive oil in a litter bottle, that wouldn’t threaten the metric system.” Too much is done to enable bailouts either in more direct manners (ECB buying government bonds in the secondary markets) or indirectly (ECB lending to banks that lend money to the governments), which is not helping sustainability and will require hoards of EU taxes to fix or the Euro will be inflated away.

Governments and the ECB have been pressuring banks to keep buying their debts, the ECB is more of culprit since it gives conditional liquidity injections. These banks become more and more dangerous as this effect continues, Cyprus’s recent bank troubles are but a demonstration of this instability.

Possible endings

We could possibly kick the can down the road with just more bailouts but eventually wishful thinking will end and the true choices will emerge.

One of these is fiscal and monetary union, federal government issuing controls on government budgets and allowing for some of the above frictions for labour mobility to be eliminated.

The other is monetary union only, this would mean governments need to be able to default like companies, and banks would be allowed to treat sovereign debt like any other debt (something BASEL 3 doesn’t help with).

And the most costly option is the breakup, probably after a crisis and inflation. This would be seriously debilitating to all contracts that would have to be converted to a currency that doesn’t exist and would lead to immense capital flight and economic damage. Once again in the words of Cochrane: “The euro, like the meter, is a great idea. Throwing it away would be a real and needless tragedy.”

Should we abolish government? What is a libertarian?

I’ve been noticing that libertarianism has been gaining quite a bit of traction, Ron Paul is probably the first Libertarian I’ve seen get so far in politics, yet I am astounded as to the number of people who don’t properly understand what it means, I plan on making reference to libertarians in a future post so I thought a quick and simple(and visual) definition for my readers who are not familiar with the term was in order:

First of all watch this 2min video:

Libertarians believe that society should only have one law and that is to protect people from externalities, also known as tragedy of the commons. Many things can be viewed as externalities have a look at this video for a brief introduction:

The majority of our legal system today would not exist under a libertarian’s wet dream. Government would only have the roles of running courts, the army, and probably the police. My previous post on patents and IP would probably be agreeable to libertarians.

In many ways a libertarian society is a true democratic one, since the output of society is reflected on what most people want to do. A politician will claim he owns the majority of the vote, yet even among the people who did vote for him it is likely that most people disagree with him on at least some point, the only person who can represent you, is yourself.

It’s impossible to please everybody with one size fits all policies, and yet everybody is paying for it with their tax dollars. Under a libertarian society, the majority can no longer sway the other 49% to do as they are told, this might sound controversial but a moment’s reflection would probably result in the conclusion that this is as true as democracy can ever get. For instance the 51% can no longer force the 49% to pay foreign aid; any individual who wants to give money to a charity practicing foreign aid, can do so at his own expense.

What occurs in non-libertarian societies is that some guy, has a view, and believes his view is absolute and whoever doesn’t follow it should be punished. So if Obama decides to rescue the automakers and you disagree with it, so you don’t pay your taxes that year, the IRS will pick you up and throw you in jail.

As far as I’m concerned a libertarian society is as immune to the public choice dilemma as we can get without falling into anarchy, here’s another video explaining the problem of public choice:

As a hint to why I wanted this term clarified I would pinpoint to the fact that libertarians only wish to limit the role of government not its scope.

What’s the potential of on-line education?

About MOOC

The hip term in academia for online education is MOOC (massively open online courses). MOOC’s medium (the internet) isn’t really a new thing, however what is new is the fact that it is free, and that top universities have started to roll out this free content on the internet.  These courses generally have very large cohorts of students, and although the completion rate is fairly low, it is still significantly large in aggregate terms. This logically implies that the average quality of teachers on the web is much higher than the average teacher (assuming the internet picks the best teachers). As MOOCs expand, they offer terrific possibilities for developing countries, the only requirement for this free knowledge is access to internet. A 16 year old Indian who has never been to school could potentially know more math than an MIT graduate. The only real advantage offline courses offer is direct contact with the teacher though this is not necessarily as important as it may first appear; it could be that the forums created will become extensive enough to answer every possible question a student might have (especially with some advanced algorithms we can produce today) but in terms of thesis feedback and supervision, there would be complications, and there are also some limitations on more practical subjects being mastered online.

Economic theories of education

Before discussing online education we must first lay down the ground work for why people get educated.

The first theory is the theory of human capital, which basically says that people go to school or university to improve their skills or knowledge. Improving themselves makes them more valuable to companies, and as long as your value capacity is higher than what the employer has to pay you then you should be able to get a job.

A second theory is signalling, here people don’t go to university or school to get better, they merely go there so that they can prove to employers are they have certain skills. For instance, getting a degree might signal that you are more intelligent or that you work hard which are traits the employers desire. This theory could imply a limited capability for social mobility since signalling accreditation is not accessible to all.

Finally the third main theory is the good status theory; this is people going to Universities because of cultural or societal ranking purposes. This is not very different from attending a church, though this model could imply a networking effect which boosts earnings.

The literature I am familiar with seems to indicate signalling is the more prominent one. The specific measurements seem to indicate that depth of education is secondary to selection criteria and brand value of the university, which both lean towards signalling.

edit: An example of how researchers try to separate human capital from selection is by looking at those who got accepted into top universities but did not attend, some studies .

Generally my ball park estimate for the value found from attending University is something like 80% signalling and a close match between the other two, human capital is probably slightly more important than good status.  This split isn’t the same in all degree types of course, humanities rely more on signalling; technical skills could be more reliant on human capital and MBA programs more reliant on good status.

Application to online education

Under all three theories, online education has a place, however its potency differs. Under signalling dominating there is likely to be a wage premium for attending regular Universities since a large portion of their value is their selection criteria which are diluted when there is an online system. However if a shift should occur to human capital, that is people attending Universities to improve their value, then that spells a bust for traditional universities.

Making online education also appeal to signalling will require a way to make testing credible by being exempt from plagiarism, it might seem plausible to just have screen sharing settings on or webcam active at all times during testing but it’s very hard to say who would watch these, it is perhaps better if an automated process is found. If credibility is attained in online education it may be possible for it to signal things that regular universities don’t, such as discipline, initiative, independence or even entrepreneurship.

Demand and Supply

In my mind there are two main types of demand for these MOOCs, mainly seeking mental stimulation (perhaps old retirees) and career advancement. There are likely to be cases where the human capital model applies for career advancement, as some jobs might offer on-site testing but it’s perhaps better if centers for testing were established that people can just show up for and use their knowledge to gain accreditation and then not have to re-take endless amounts of tests. In any case if the goal is accreditation the cost will generally be higher, but if the goal is the acquisition of skills or recreational purposes, it’s very cheap to provide since no involvement with test centers and diplomas is required.

A special demand market that the flexibility of online education can tap into is people who are full time workers. This pool of people is likely to be gigantic and the talent endless, these people are people who are so valuable to companies that the company cannot afford to let them off for a year to do an MBA or specialist program. Let’s also not forget that this extra choice for students will create competition with Universities, and with competition, there won’t be as strong of ability for Universities to select the very best candidates since the pool of people they will be selecting from will be smaller. This will dilute their selection criteria, and subsequently their signalling value.

On the supply side, the business model of providers this will shift attention to the lecturers, probably significantly cutting down non-lecturer staff of universities. It could be argued that if some of these fields being taught online aren’t expanding(I want to say fields like Anthropology generally evolve slower) enough every couple of years, the maintenance of updating the videos will be very low resulting in very few lecturers being required. For instance it could be that the same videos of mathematics will be watched 100 years from now, essentially killing the market for math lecturers. This could result in a winner take all effect, such as the music industry has witnessed, but not likely to be as prevalent since the language barrier might be important, this is because it is the main source of communication (where as music today barely relies on language).   This winner take all effect could be monetized through textbooks, although the market for textbooks will shrink in aggregate because of MOOC’s (controlling for shifts from developing to developed). This is an inevitable consequence of the winner take all effect, it is likely that successful textbooks will be boosted as the reputation of its author (who is an MOOC lecturer) rises and offers higher brand value to the University hosting the lecturer, which can also be monetized in a number of ways. This also implies much fewer universities being around unless people still value other things about them such as the cultural or extra-curricular aspect, but it is also just possible people meet that demand by participating more in their local clubs.  There are also legal boundaries preventing such supply shifts from occurring, such that you need to be accredited by government agencies and I am not certain how that affects online courses.

Present and future structures

Imagine a moving platform that holds a product and goes through different points to add new elements to the product. Now imagine that those elements are dependent on the previous one’s being properly installed. Well that’s how I view education as it is right now, only the products are people. This method causes way too many defects, and not necessarily by being more efficient either, since the energy expended to make sure each sequential piece was properly placed would be given by the people themselves. So the main cost is the switching cost, the initial cost of change. It doesn’t make sense for someone (regardless of their age) who hasn’t mastered a subject to move on to a more advanced subject that has the un-mastered subject as a prerequisite.  I don’t really need to produce evidence that it’s harder for a child that hasn’t learned the power rule to apply the chain rule.

It seems the easiest step to take in making education more dynamic is pushing it online, students have the ability to rewind, fast forward and pause and really go at their own pace, the Khan Academy model also seems fairly effective, they have a quiz after each concept is introduced, making sure students have mastered a concept by acing a quiz before being recommended to move on, so all students are A students. Not to mention that the world would be much more efficient if degrees were given out for every concept mastered, like that, people would not get over or under educated.

Perhaps the most backwards mechanics we apply is grading on curves that is giving x% of a class an A or a B. This gives no indication of mastered material, and makes the goal to be better than the rest as opposed to learning the material. This relative grading passes on an information cost to employers since they have to employ capital to learn what different kinds of grades mean, to see if they meet an absolute qualification and to see how they fare compared to graduates of other systems. An employer knows very little if an A or a B was received in a curved class and his only way of knowing how much stuff they learned in these classes is by knowing something about the school or university which channels money to the elite who have an already established reputation and costs the employers less. This is in part why it’s good to have national/international wide testing (eg. GCSE, IB, AP etc) that is widely accepted, so we can compare people. However this information cost must still be borne when comparing people who took different types of tests and in the case of Universities, the lack of such test types makes it very hard to compare students.

The structure of education needs to be taken into account, especially in government funding; it could be funneling us to towards some of these theories. For instance the French education system which I previously discussed has government pushing the status and signalling theories, which could amplify inequality. Online degrees probably haven’t had enough time to be able to project degree type value, in the future the mere fact that you have an online education could signal things like discipline and initiative to employers, and may probably offer value in that people can boost their job experience whilst simultaneously boosting their education credentials but these things will likely emerge over time.

As a final note, let’s not forget that online education is today much cheaper, which allows students to more flexibly choose their career, whilst traditional graduates will have to choose things that will repay their loans, even if their career advancement prospects in this given position are limited. However this cannot be properly observed without specific econometric techniques to get rid of the selection bias of people who did not attend regular university.

Money’s use: the unit of exchange

Picking up from my previous post on the value of money which talked about its use as the unit of account we continue here with the next benefit, unit of exchange.

So every good has two values, the first is its retail value, X. This is what people would pay for it because they want it (or need it). The second is its exchange value, Y; this is what people who don’t want it would pay for it and they would do this because they can exchange it later on. So by definition X should be higher than Y otherwise people would not buy it to sell it on since they would make a loss.

So, let’s take a situation. Let’s say person A wants to buy a cell phone, but the only thing he has in excess is a microwave.  So A goes to meet another person, person B (who has an extra cell phone) so he can exchange his microwave for the cell phone. It could be that B wants or needs the microwave, and if that’s the case, that’s what economists call a “double coincidence of wants”. In this case he will get fairly close to the X value of the microwave since person B wants it.

If however person B does not want the microwave then he will not want to exchange it. That is unless he is making a profit from this transaction, and the only way he can do that is by thinking he can exchange it for a higher value than he will get it for. So person A will get a value close to Y in this case.

This difference between X and Y is the cost that person A will suffer in the second but not the first scenario. It is the second transaction cost that takes place without money.

As I mentioned before, money is essential to the division of labor of society.As a last demonstration of division of labour’s important to the exchange value, let’s imagine that a bakers TV broke down. Without the presence of money, he will have to spend hours and hours on end trying to learn how this works, and then fix the TV. These hours are of considerable value to people, but with money, the baker can essentially fix the TV by baking cookies. He has the ability to liquefy his effort and make it take any form he wishes it to without suffering much of a transaction cost at all. I find this amazing, how you manage to achieve everything people can do with equal efficiency by doing just one thing what you can do most efficiently. That is unless labour prices are distorted.

Now so far we have assumed that both parties know the true value of what is being offered. If however B does not know what A’s product is worth the transaction is crippled since B would need to be educated. This education process is costly and if he is exchanging it for the purpose of reselling it, then he might also expect that who he sells it to will also need to bear an education cost. So the price person B will pay will be Y minus the cost of acquiring this information, which means A got even less value out of his product.

So in our economy with millions of products, we can introduce money and what this does is make X=Y.

Money isn’t some artificial thing that was dreamt up, it was a spontaneous process, one where people saw immediate benefit from its use. There was no real need for government to issue currency as medium of exchange; historically gold and silver fulfill an equally good role. The criteria for a good medium of exchange are durability, portability, recognisability, divisibility, homogeneity and scarcity (this one is tricky with elastic money). As a side effect, when something becomes the medium of exchange, its value is no longer determined by its intrinsic value but by its value for trading.

As a final note, it should be obvious that money is only worth something in the context of the economy’s output. If you have 10% of all money in the economy, you essentially own 10% of value of the economy. So printing money doesn’t really create value, it merely increases the medium with which to exchange things, the amount of things to exchange has not changed.

Do we need patents/intellectual property?

It’s easy to think that industries can’t work without patents, and this is very true to some extent. Many biotech firms make a loss year in and year out, hoping to survive until that patent gets accepted. But this is a static view of the world; let’s take a moment to consider how the world would look without these patents. To be sure demand for medicine and this kind of research would still remain and as long as demand remains, then there will be solutions. Maybe the political process will create funding for such projects, though that would probably not be very efficient. So how can the private sector profit without patents?  How do other industries which don’t have the luxury of patents/IP(intellectual property) property do this? Let’s start with the latter question.

The theory

If a fashion designer comes up with a great new style of dressing, but can’t patent it and the next day all others do something similar what has he gained? Well reputation of course. Monetizing reputation is then easy; this fashion designer will be the first to be called by people who want something designed. Or if he has a certain brand or logo associated with him, it will signal competency to the consumer boosting his sales. This same process is also present in finance, most notably, investment banking, one bank invents(or finds) a market, then, the other’s join in, nobody can claim that investment banks don’t have the incentive to innovate, in fact most of the media coverage suggests they innovate in excess. Part of what allows them to thrive is this lack of patents, which allows instant liquidity through the duplication of products. Reputation actually works surprisingly like patents; they give you a great name (which you can use to profit) but fade with time. I’m sure it’s no surprise to anybody that having a good reputation allows a company to charge a premium for its products and if no premium is charged then they have an advantage over equally priced competitors.

Music

Music is to me is the industry which is most undeserving of IP. US copyright protection is active until 70 years after the author’s death! Not only does protecting music not produce better music(no surprise since it’s an art and not a science) but the structure of IP law doesn’t even take into account how the market works. Most of the profits of music are usually made within 10 years of release so protecting it for another century seems kind of insane. Especially if you wish to use an extract from one of these artists after he dies, you have to be chasing down his heirs (who could be anywhere) to ask for permissions.

The theory described above is probably the easiest to prove in the music industry. Artists can improve their reputation by releasing popular music (which can be done with almost no cost, thanks to peer to peer sharing) and can then monetize it by using their reputation, perhaps to advertise or in concerts. The greater their reputation the higher they can charge for their concerts, and the more money they can get from advertising. Businesses (like movie studios) may also wish to contract them to create music for them. It’s hard to make a statement that is “ceteris paribus”(all things being equal) consistent, but since illegal pirating has commenced, I would say music has grown much more popular, there are more artists today than there have ever been. This is in fact partly helped by youtube (an example of how artists can make money without IP) but this was the case before youtube ever started. There is no doubt in my mind that more pirating of a given artists music, boosts his concert sales. Perhaps the most frustrating thing the about the music industry is that they are crippling peer to peer networking technologies which have very high potential welfare benefits for the everyday consumer.

Pharmaceuticals

So now to the real challenge, how would pharmaceuticals get developed? Well in a very similar way really, though the industry would probably own a lot more hospitals. So a pharmaceutical firm develops something spectacular, let’s say they cure aids. Then their brand value will rise and their hospitals will be more popular because their doctors there will be perceived to be the best in class. Even without hospitals, their medicines would become more popular due to the prestige associated with their brand. There is still an incentive to create these products, in fact the incentive to innovate is strengthened like never before, since there is no chance to sit back and relax through rent seeking (royalties), you must now always be one step ahead of your competitors, you are forced to keep innovating, cure cancer, Alzheimer’s, death, etc.

You’ve got to remember that IP at the end of the day makes things much more expensive, and could bring things out of reach of certain people in the world. Although it might not be a big loss for people on the music end, it holds back the private sector from being able to distribute innovative medicinal practices to people all over the world. If a firm develops a technology, it is under no real pressure to start distributing it, since it can just sit back and claim royalties from others who wish to do the dirty work. However those others will have to overcharge for the product and will probably not have much incentive to do this. Whilst in a world with no patents, the incentive is for these pharmaceutical companies to get this product to all markets they can identify before anyone else. What’s their incentive to do this fast if they have 20 years until the patent expires and can claim royalties without effort or investment? Let’s not restrict competition, whoever can save the most people first, wins.

Software

So now with the big boy of patents tackled, let’s go down to some chumps. Whilst the pharmaceutical industry is extreme in that the ratio of cost to create to the cost of copying is very high there are other industries which file thousands of patents without this ratio. One most extreme example is the software industry, most software innovation is incremental, created by teams of software engineers at very modest costs, worse yet most of these technologies quickly become obsolete. Each device (laptop, phone, etc) could potentially have hundreds of thousands of patents. We saw this summer how apple won a case over having rounded edges on smartphones. This creates endless opportunity to hamstring competitors.

The costs

In practice of course all these processes are very costly to our economy; we produce lots and lots of lawyers to protect these patents. Patents increase the prices of goods, they allocate resources to patent races(which is not a good competitive trait to base competition on, see my other post), there is a cost of having to look through the Patent and Trademark office every time you do something, there is of course a lot of  filing of defensive patents, which are patents which won’t necessarily yield royalties but they are there because you are scared someone else will file it, and of course patents give birth to patent rent seekers who buy large number of patents and only make money through fees and if necessary by suing . It seems obvious to me that if we had less lawyers taking care of this stuff, the innovation process would be much quicker, not to mention that the lawyers might maybe join a profession that actually directly helps competitiveness(and not by cutting off opponents feet). Let’s also not forget that we as tax payers generally have to pay to keep these(e.g patent office) public institutions running.

Fair use

In law “fair use” is a defense allowing for copying of short excerpts from a copyrighted work without a license. The rationale for this is that the transaction cost of negotiating a license for these is likely to exceed the value of the license. Yet even this law that has potential for being economically rational is so ill defined that the copyright owners can bring down this “short” phrasing to its bare minimum, for instance film studios insist that even a minute of their film is too much. Innovation comes in many forms, yet the most common is not the popularized “radical” but the “incremental” one. The lack of fair use objectivity in law is very damaging to the latter.

Global patents

One of the most vital advantages of the Chinese economy is in fact this lack of respect for patents, it allows their firms to have much lower costs of production, and this cannot be duplicated in the west because we fear the courts reining in on us. In fact in developing countries there is a reluctance to file patents, since it is in essence just telling your competitors your recipe. Another well documented global phenomenon is that patents cause inequality in society, a fact proven by academics that should not really surprise anyone.

Some inventions are not patentable and could be just as valuable to society but having patent systems is funneling innovation to only occur in areas which are patented. For instance, the theory of relativity could not be patented, same for the theory of evolution, and our understanding of DNA and more recently the Higgs Boson breakthrough. Patenting directs our scientists to projects that can be patented rather than on pure scientific research(which might have much more productive output in the long run).

A video game called lord of the rings online, was initially a product you paid for, and once sales started dropping the owners made it free to play (making money through in game purchasing), and the game saw its profitability rise higher than ever before not to mention a much bigger player base (which will likely be beneficial on the next release of this company).  This is an example how the private sector can build models based around other ways of making profit. If every purchase gets duplicated by the net, then in the future we might see consumers cooperate to see products see the light of day, this is perhaps what kickstarter is accomplishing, if you expect that after the release the whole world will be playing your game and you’re not too sure about making an in-game profit system then you can just put your projects on kickstarter and wait for consumers to cooperate and give you funding for it.

We need to call out things by their real names, so what is a patent? It’s very simple, it’s a monopoly. In short I would not call for elimination for the whole patent system; I am not that extreme (though I obviously understand where that argument would come from). I would however wish for patents to end for all products except drugs and maybe some other expensive but easy to copy technology (emphasis on the maybe), this moderate stance is only because I’m afraid to meddle with a chicken that lays golden eggs (medicine).

Open source movements have definitely shown me that people will create not only for money but because they love creating, it’s self-fulfilling (an opinion shared by Akira Kurosawa in Ikiru). The private enterprise is resilient enough to find ways to satisfy demand without such artificial methods. Government intervention should be done when systemic and chronic market failures exist, these conditions are not met in our world as far as patents and IP are concerned.

links 08/10/2012

Articles:

When do economists agree?(fun)

Exponential Economist meets finite physicist(fun)

Bernake and student conversation(fun..ish)

What came first, the chicken or the egg? Empirical Evidence!(fun…ish)

What are the key functions of Asset management?

What is the price of going short volatility?

Bestiary of Economists!(fun)

The economics of video games(fun..ish)

Gravity and international finance

Foreign banks and financial development

Corporate governance in financial institutions

Too crooked to fail? (fun…ish)

With Mitt Romney having released his effective tax rate and it being below 15% there has been a debate about optimal capital taxation. Here’s a good academic paper on it, and a slightly more comprehensible article on it, there is also an unsmoothed graph presented after that article.

Videos:

 

Want to be a crony?

 

Should we end the Fed?

 

Do Indie Video games have a competitive advantage?

 

Want to learn economics? Here’s some links:

Lecture on macro0-economics(includes stuff on optimal currency area)

Tom Wood’s Site for Austrian Economics

Marginal Revolution Site for economics

Fed lectures series

Money’s use: the unit of account

As expected, during times of crisis people start critiquing the system.  Most notably I hear a lot about the evil of money. To really understand money we must first understand division of labour, people specialize in different fields, the often cited classic examples of division of labour are professions such as a farmer, butcher or carpenter. This division has allowed humanity to achieve enormous productivity gains(obviously this is a shameful summary). However when these professionals wish to exchange their product or service with another being, they are prone to suffering a transaction or accounting cost. This is because they do not know the value of their good in context to the rest of the world.

This is where the first of three functions of money comes in, in this first post of three I will talk about the first function, the Unit of account:

If the economy has n amount of goods or services, in an economy without a unit of account, the numbers of prices are denoted as:

Whilst in an economy with a unit of account, the number of prices around is merely:

So if the economy has seven goods, Beef, Carrots, Chairs, Pants, Chimay(Belgian beer), Water and Ipads. There are possible 21 possible combinations. These are:

Beef-Carrots, Beef-Chairs, Beef-pants, Beef-Chimay, Beef-Water, Beef-Ipads, Carrots-Chairs, Carrots-Pants, Carrots-Chimay, Carrots-Water, Carrots-Ipads, Chairs-pants, Chairs-Chimay, Chairs-Water, Chairs-Ipads, Pants-Chimay, Pants-Water, Pants-Ipads, Chimay-water, Chimay-Ipads, Water-Ipads.

The reason its n-1 and not n is because you assume they will use any one of these goods as a unit of exchange. For instance you could make chairs the unit of account, and everyone would agree to price their goods in chairs, so if the brewer wanted to buy an ipad, he would bring like 50 chairs to Steve Jobs(may he rest in peace) and exchange it for an Ipad. So now you only need to know six prices these are:

chairs to beef, chairs to Chimay, chairs to carrots, chairs to pants, chairs to water, and chairs to ipads.

It’s very troublesome to carry around all those chairs, what about something valuable but small then? Well maybe microprocessors? Well then how would you buy water? You might be forced to buy it by the tonne. If you try to add another object for less valuable transactions then the number of prices you need to know doubles(+ the exchange with the first unit of account).

So a convenient way to do this is to just have contracts entitling you to a certain value. In fact that’s what money IS, in the olden days bank notes were something you could literally go to the bank and redeem for gold, but even then nobody did because you could conduct all this business without ever having to lay a hand on the gold.

Anyways even though you’ve simplified the process of knowing a little, it’s not sufficient because in an economy with so many products as our own it’s still very troublesome to know all the prices.