Big ideas: Design vs Evolution

This was supposed to be a single post but I don’t like talking about concepts I haven’t previously introduced on the blog so I’m making the first post about design and evolution and then following it up with a post on movies and series.

Design

A design is an article/product/item of manufacture that is the result of an architect’s vision. The key in design is the presence of the final vision from the initial stages of the process. Likely to be the biggest achievement of design thinking is the wheel.

wheel-invention

Intuitively, the wheel is uniquely the product of design thinking as half a wheel or a wheel with angles would be close to useless. Therefore, if we are calculating the marginal value of each design step and the steps are sufficiently small we would never come up with the wheel. This is because at most steps, the direction towards the wheel will never appear like an improvement. It is only when the wheel is completed (or close to it) that its value starts to emerge. Accordingly, it seems alternative improvements will always be chosen over those that will lead to the wheel.

Graph for blog

When the wheel is only 20 or 30 percent completed and only a step or two ahead can be envisioned, it is unlikely that the design process would continue and lead to the final product.

Design thinking does however make the product highly fragile. Since in essence it relies on the synergy of the components and not their value in isolation, damaging a component creates a non-linear loss in value. For instance, adding a couple of angles to a wheel quickly deteriorates its value as it can no longer roll smoothly. This fragility does not have to pertain to the object itself, it can emerge from the environment for instance a wheel’s utility is fragile to not being on flat ground.

This same logic applies to buildings, they are a product of design thinking. You know a skyscraper is designed because knocking down a small proportion of the building causes it be useless (collapse). It is designed to lean on certain components more than others. (I might come back to this in the form of urban planning in some future post).

Overall the weakness of design is its fragility. It does have potential for unprecedented efficiency but it is very reliant on its designer. If the designer has no sense of history he may not incorporate proper systems into his design which fragilizes the whole endeavor.

Evolution

Evolution is all about small steps, where you try different things in different directions and choose the one that better improve the outcome. There is a caveat of conscious versus unconscious evolution but it’s not important for my purposes.

Through evolution it is possible that the outcome be enormously complex. Perhaps one of the more famous examples is echolocation in bats or dolphins, which is an enormously complex process that is more efficient than most of what modern technology has pieced together. Perhaps a more intuitive example of evolutionary outcomes is in scheduling your calendar. Gradually adding routine things to your calendar (gym, dance, learning, etc) is an evolutionary process because you evaluate each addition separately.

Things that evolve through evolution are generally very robust to variation and damage. For instance in the scheduling example, if suddenly one activity gets cancelled, the value of the others is usually not suddenly damaged and you still have the value of the other activities and the free time you gained from the cancelling. Similarly half a lung is still very useful, though it will obviously be able to produce only a fraction of the full lung’s oxygen. In fact most (if not all) of the organs of the human body share this feature.

Technical note: When dealing with evolved entities its usually less misleading to rely on the Law of Large Numbers.

The thing about evolution that makes it robust is that it does not forget the past. It is conscious of history and has systems to incorporate the past into its future behavior.

Putting it together

To me evolution vs design is an important question in almost all domains in life. Should one plan or play it by ear and deal with things as they come along?

The truth of the matter is that nature (which is almost fully a product of evolution) has a statistical validity that makes arguing against it a highly challenging endeavor. Whatever was not robust was ruled out by millennia of evolution. Therefore a proposal that is an alternative to nature, to be credible must have a significance level that can be juxtaposed to these millennia of evolution. I.E though taking a car (a designed object) to work may appear universally more efficient, but the lack of walking may lead to heart problems, unbalanced psychology, etc. The thing about evolution is that it feels no pressure to inform its user what the benefit of a certain heuristic/habit is, so great care must be taken when trying to replace such heuristics. Evolution may give us instincts to delay gratification but a design thinker may not accept such a delay because he/she does not see the benefit, and if you do not see it, then you cannot design around it.

Evolution doesn’t have to be uniquely genetic or cultural. For instance the heuristic to look left and right when crossing the street is probably both a cultural heuristic and a genetic tendency, it is a method of taking the past and using it in the future.

Similarly the economics debates which used to be in large part dominated by either evolution (pure capitalism) or design (communism), have now become dominated with a mixture.  Ideas of pure design have mostly been shut down, they have been replaced with arguments about the provision of platforms and are inherently of higher sophistication. Property rights and the rule of law are seen as such a platform and debates over the welfare state can be interpreted similarly.  It does seem however that there is quite a lot of emphasis on this kind of design thinking without much mention of fragility, and it’s obvious to me that with things like nukes, the internet, and even central banking(I find this one particularly interesting), we are quite a bit more fragile than we have ever been.

Money’s use: the unit of account

As expected, during times of crisis people start critiquing the system.  Most notably I hear a lot about the evil of money. To really understand money we must first understand division of labour, people specialize in different fields, the often cited classic examples of division of labour are professions such as a farmer, butcher or carpenter. This division has allowed humanity to achieve enormous productivity gains(obviously this is a shameful summary). However when these professionals wish to exchange their product or service with another being, they are prone to suffering a transaction or accounting cost. This is because they do not know the value of their good in context to the rest of the world.

This is where the first of three functions of money comes in, in this first post of three I will talk about the first function, the Unit of account:

If the economy has n amount of goods or services, in an economy without a unit of account, the number of prices is denoted by:

Whilst in an economy with a unit of account, the number of prices around is merely:

So if the economy has seven goods, Beef, Carrots, Chairs, Pants, Chimay(Belgian beer), Water and Ipads. There are possible 21 possible combinations. These are:

Beef-Carrots, Beef-Chairs, Beef-pants, Beef-Chimay, Beef-Water, Beef-Ipads, Carrots-Chairs, Carrots-Pants, Carrots-Chimay, Carrots-Water, Carrots-Ipads, Chairs-pants, Chairs-Chimay, Chairs-Water, Chairs-Ipads, Pants-Chimay, Pants-Water, Pants-Ipads, Chimay-water, Chimay-Ipads, Water-Ipads.

The reason its n-1 and not n is because you assume they will use any one of these goods as a unit of exchange. For instance you could make chairs the unit of account, and everyone would agree to price their goods in chairs, so if the brewer wanted to buy an ipad, he would bring like 50 chairs to Steve Jobs(may he rest in peace) and exchange it for an Ipad. So now you only need to know six prices these are:

chairs to beef, chairs to Chimay, chairs to carrots, chairs to pants, chairs to water, and chairs to ipads.

It’s very troublesome to carry around all those chairs, what about something valuable but small then? Well maybe microprocessors? Well then how would you buy water? You might be forced to buy it by the tonne. If you try to add another object for less valuable transactions then the number of prices you need to know doubles(+ the exchange with the first unit of account).

So a convenient way to do this is to just have contracts entitling you to a certain value. In fact that’s what money IS, in the olden days bank notes were something you could literally go to the bank and redeem for gold, but even then nobody did because you could conduct all this business without ever having to lay a hand on the gold.

Anyways even though you’ve simplified the process of knowing a little, it’s not sufficient because in an economy with so many products as our own it’s still very troublesome to know all the prices.